The most material recent change for the housing market is the Reserve Bank’s 2 September move to lift the OCR by 25 basis points to 2.75%.

Against that backdrop, the latest completed national housing month (REINZ July) shows a subdued market where buyers have time, choice and negotiating leverage. The REINZ national median sale price was $760,000, down 0.7% year-on-year. Sales volumes were meaningfully weaker: 6,090 sales, down 10.0% year-on-year. The House Price Index sat at 3,550, down 0.4% year-on-year. At the same time, inventory rose to 33,252, up 9.3% year-on-year, and the median days to sell increased to 50 (up 2 days).

A useful way to interpret those numbers together is that supply is not being “flooded” by new listings; it is being held up by slower absorption. REINZ new listings were 7,698, down 0.5% year-on-year. So while fresh listing flow is broadly steady to slightly down, demand is not clearing the existing stock quickly enough. That combination keeps the market buyer-leaning even without dramatic price falls.

Cotality’s data (different coverage and methodology, so it should not be blended with REINZ in one series) corroborates the direction. Cotality recorded 6,935 transactions in July, down 6.4% year-on-year, and a national median dwelling value of $804,303, down 0.3% in July and down 0.7% year-on-year. Cotality also notes values remain materially below the January 2022 peak (reported as 17.7% lower). Taken together, both datasets are consistent: turnover is soft, values are gently slipping or broadly flat depending on measure, and buyers have more negotiating leverage than sellers.

One of the more interesting counterpoints is buyer composition. Cotality reports first home buyers at a record monthly market share of 29%. That doesn’t contradict subdued national conditions; it highlights that “the market” is not one buyer group. In a slower environment, some cohorts can increase share even if the total number of transactions is down.

Regionally, the national average continues to hide the commercially useful story: divergence. The report highlights resilience in parts of the South Island (with REINZ reporting stronger annual HPI movement in Southland, Otago and Canterbury), while Auckland and Wellington are described as remaining burdened by stock and weaker confidence. This matters for advice: a national median can be steady while local negotiating power shifts meaningfully.

Putting the evidence together, the most defensible national position remains “Leaning Buyer”. Inventory is elevated, selling times are longer, sales volumes are down, and values have slipped again on Cotality’s measure. The direction of travel is best described as stable to slightly softer, because sellers are not broadly capitulating, but the second OCR rise increases affordability uncertainty and tends to reinforce buyer selectivity. The practical takeaway for sellers is that the first two weeks on market matter more when buyers have alternatives; for buyers, the leverage is real, but it still needs to be applied property-by-property and suburb-by-suburb rather than assumed everywhere equally.