Outside of the cities, smaller provincial centres would be most vulnerable overall, but Queenstown Lakes also stands out, as it has a high market profile compared to its population size. Auckland is the highest risk of the main centres.
Places less vulnerable in a property market downturn include Whangarei, Tauranga, Whakatane, Hastings, Wellington, Nelson, Christchurch and Timaru, while Dunedin, Invercargill, Hamilton, New Plymouth, Napier and Lower Hutt sit somewhere in the middle.
The index looks at measures such as property demand, affordability, credit behaviour, employment and investment activity, as well as supply and demand. It doesn’t forecast values.