2026 Property Outlook: Stable Rates, Steady Prices

The first big economic update of 2026 is in.

At the same time, the latest REINZ data shows the national median house price sits at $753,106, up slightly year-on-year.

Put simply:
Interest rates are steady.
Property prices are steady.
And that matters.

Why the OCR Staying the Same Is Important

The OCR influences mortgage rates. When it rises, home loan costs usually rise too. When it falls, borrowing becomes cheaper.
With the OCR staying at 2.25%, mortgage rates are unlikely to change dramatically in the short term.
That gives buyers and homeowners something valuable:
Predictability.
There’s no sudden pressure. No immediate rate shock. No forced urgency.
That helps confidence.

What This Means for Buyers

If you’re thinking about buying, stable interest rates make it easier to plan.
You can budget based on today’s rates instead of guessing what might happen next month.
At the same time, the market isn’t overheated. There is more choice than during peak years, and less panic buying.
That creates space to make informed decisions.

What This Means for Sellers

For sellers, steady rates help maintain buyer confidence.
When borrowing costs jump quickly, buyers often pull back. That isn’t happening right now.
But in a balanced market, pricing matters more than ever.
Overpricing can slow your campaign. Smart pricing and strong negotiation make the difference.
And fee structure becomes more important too.
When growth is modest, protecting your net return matters. A fair, tiered fee model can help you keep more of your sale price without sacrificing service.

What This Means for People With a Mortgage

If you already have a mortgage, a steady OCR means less short-term pressure.
If your fixed term is ending soon, it’s still wise to talk to your adviser. But there’s no immediate signal that rates are about to spike.
Some homeowners choose to fix part of their loan and leave part flexible. Others fix short-term for flexibility.
The right choice depends on your situation.

The Bigger Picture for 2026

When interest rates are stable and house prices are steady, the market becomes more rational.

Not emotional.
Not fearful.
Just steady.

That kind of environment often rewards smart decisions over rushed ones.

For buyers, that means careful planning.
For sellers, that means strong strategy.
For homeowners, that means breathing room.

2026 may not be a headline-grabbing year — but it could be a year of stability.

And stability creates opportunity

Sources: Reserve Bank of New Zealand OCR announcement; Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ), January 2026 Property Report.